Preseason Rankings
Big West
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
119 UC Irvine 26.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 13 - 5 +3.3      +0.7 147 +2.6 98 67.8 213 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 UC Santa Barbara 20.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 8 12 - 6 +1.4      +1.3 134 +0.1 165 61.6 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Hawaii 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 9 10 - 8 -2.6      -2.3 242 -0.3 177 69.5 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 UC Davis 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -2.9      -0.8 195 -2.1 235 68.1 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 UC Riverside 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 9 - 9 -3.2      -4.1 288 +0.8 144 59.6 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Long Beach St. 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 -4.2      -2.1 236 -2.1 234 75.3 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 UC San Diego 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 10 9 - 9 -4.5      -10.6 340 +6.1 26 69.3 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Cal St. Fullerton 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7.9      -5.7 316 -2.2 238 71.1 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
308 Cal St. Northridge 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 6 - 12 -8.8      -1.6 220 -7.1 332 73.7 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 Cal Poly 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -9.9      -4.7 300 -5.2 313 68.7 183 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
UC Irvine 2.3 33.4 21.0 13.2 8.0 5.8 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 3.1 22.6 21.9 15.7 11.8 8.0 5.9 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.6
Hawaii 4.7 9.3 12.5 13.4 13.0 12.4 10.4 9.6 8.2 5.7 3.9
UC Davis 4.5 10.2 14.2 13.9 13.6 12.9 10.6 8.5 6.8 5.2 3.1
UC Riverside 5.0 8.7 11.7 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.3 10.0 8.9 6.8 4.7
Long Beach St. 5.5 5.2 8.7 10.4 12.0 12.9 13.4 12.2 11.0 8.7 5.2
UC San Diego 5.2 6.1 10.6 12.2 12.9 12.7 12.1 11.0 9.1 7.1 5.3
Cal St. Fullerton 6.8 2.0 4.0 6.2 8.2 9.4 11.5 13.6 15.2 15.4 14.3
Cal St. Northridge 7.3 1.5 3.1 4.6 6.1 8.0 9.6 12.4 15.2 17.6 21.8
Cal Poly 7.6 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.1 7.5 9.5 12.5 16.4 20.8 22.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
UC Irvine 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.8 11.4 12.5 13.2 13.4 11.7
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.5 11.1 12.9 12.6 12.0 9.7 6.3
Hawaii 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.1 7.1 8.5 9.9 10.9 11.0 10.5 9.6 7.4 5.6 3.9 2.1
UC Davis 10 - 6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.3 6.2 7.9 10.0 11.0 11.4 11.1 9.9 8.7 6.4 4.4 2.1
UC Riverside 9 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.1 10.9 10.6 10.0 9.1 7.0 5.2 3.5 1.9
Long Beach St. 9 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.7 5.1 7.5 9.0 11.0 12.0 12.4 10.5 8.7 7.1 5.2 3.5 1.8 0.9
UC San Diego 9 - 7 0.2 0.7 1.2 3.0 4.1 6.1 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.5 11.0 9.9 8.6 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.1
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 9 0.8 2.4 4.7 7.1 9.7 11.2 12.1 11.5 10.6 9.3 6.9 5.7 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 10 1.6 4.3 7.2 9.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 10.9 8.8 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2
Cal Poly 6 - 10 1.3 4.2 7.5 10.5 13.0 13.4 12.5 10.9 9.0 6.7 4.6 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 33.4% 23.1 8.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 22.6% 14.6 6.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 9.3% 5.5 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 10.2% 6.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 8.7% 4.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 5.2% 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 6.1% 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 34.3% 33.7% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 4.4 8.6 8.4 5.5 3.4 65.7 0.9%
UC Santa Barbara 24.1% 23.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.5 5.3 5.5 5.3 3.9 75.9 0.5%
Hawaii 10.7% 10.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 89.3 0.1%
UC Davis 9.9% 9.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.5 90.1 0.1%
UC Riverside 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.3 3.0 90.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.8 93.2 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 97.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 97.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 34.3% 1.9% 33.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 24.1% 2.1% 23.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 10.7% 1.7% 9.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 9.9% 2.1% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 9.1% 1.7% 8.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 6.8% 1.8% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.2% 1.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 93.9% 0.9 6.1 93.0 0.8
2nd Round 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0